S3 Subject Choice Seminar
Births and enrolment
Births are not candidates: migration, repeating a year and cross-border study all make actual enrolment differ from births.
- Births swing widely (57,000 to 95,000) while actual enrolment stays steady (47,000 to 63,000): the ‘95,451’ behind the 2029 DSE cohort is really 61,309.
- The 2031 ‘birth cliff’ cohort: S1 actually took in 59,976, more than the 57,084 births. There is no cliff, and the DSE and university entry will not suddenly get much easier.
- DSE entries rose from 2024 to 2026 and exceeded day-school S6 enrolment in each of those years.
| Birth year | Births | DSE year | Enrolled | DSE entries |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 65,626 | 2024 | 46,609 | 50,591 |
| 2007 | 70,875 | 2025 | 49,193 | 55,489 |
| 2008 | 78,822 | 2026 | 50,311 | 58,487 |
| 2009 | 82,095 | 2027 | 53,225 | — |
| 2010 | 88,584 | 2028 | 57,297 | — |
| 2011 | 95,451 | 2029 | 61,309 | — |
| 2012 | 91,558 | 2030 | 62,718 | — |
| 2013 | 57,084 | 2031 | 59,976 | — |
| 2014 | 62,305 | 2032 | — | — |
Enrolled:2024–26 = that year’s S6 students; 2027–31 = the cohort’s actual enrolment in 2025/26 (S5 down to S1). Day schools; EDB Student Enrolment Statistics 2025/26.
S3 and S6 enrolment by year (2015/16–2025/26)
| School year | 15/16 | 16/17 | 17/18 | 18/19 | 19/20 | 20/21 | 21/22 | 22/23 | 23/24 | 24/25 | 25/26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 enrolled | 58,799 | 56,052 | 54,107 | 53,637 | 54,821 | 56,466 | 57,461 | 55,963 | 55,921 | 57,859 | 61,309 |
| S6 enrolled | 59,835 | 55,023 | 54,669 | 51,206 | 48,824 | 46,792 | 45,971 | 45,877 | 46,609 | 49,193 | 50,311 |
S3 numbers roughly predict S6 and the DSE three years later: the 61,309 S3 students of 2025/26 are the real base of the 2029 DSE. The S6 row also shows the size of that year’s DSE school-candidate cohort. Day schools; EDB Student Enrolment Statistics.
DSE and JUPAS
DSE entries ≠ JUPAS applicants. The 2026 gap is about 13,000, mainly non-local private candidates (who do not apply through JUPAS) and some local students going overseas or to sub-degrees. JUPAS applicants also include repeat candidates.
DSE entries / sat
| Year | Entries | Sat |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 51,886 | 49,976 |
| 2022 | 49,840 | 47,891 |
| 2023 | 50,511 | 48,762 |
| 2024 | 50,591 | 49,026 |
| 2025 | 55,489 | 53,895 |
| 2026 | 58,487 | 56,853 |
2026:46,344 school candidates + 12,143 private candidates (private candidates up 62% in two years).
JUPAS Main Round
| Year | Applicants | Offers | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 39,634 | 15,776 | 39.80% |
| 2025 | 43,269 | 15,808 | 36.53% |
| 2026 | 45,545 | 15,619 | 34.29% |
Offers include:funded degrees at the eight universities + HKMU self-financed degrees + EdUHK higher diplomas. Counting degrees only, 2026 degree offers were ≈33.7%, the lowest since 2016 (press, 2026-08-05/06).
A press clipping in the slides also shows a 2012–2025 series of students admitted to the eight universities. Current JUPAS statistics count Main Round offers by programme level, a different method, so the series could not be checked row by row and is left out of this page.
2026 results by subject
Day-school candidates, sorted by 5** rate; only subjects with 2,000 or more sitting. The top 10% of Level 5 candidates get 5** and the next 30% get 5* (all candidates combined).
| Subject | Sat | 5** | 5*+ | 5+ | 4+ | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M2 | 5,480 | 3.7% | 15.1% | 37.9% | 60.7% | |
| Physics | 9,870 | 2.8% | 11.4% | 28.6% | 50.3% | |
| M1 | 2,984 | 2.7% | 12.3% | 29.1% | 53.7% | |
| Chemistry化學 | 12,512 | 2.5% | 10.1% | 25.4% | 50.5% | |
| Biology | 13,587 | 2.0% | 8.0% | 20.0% | 45.9% | |
| Economics | 11,393 | 1.8% | 7.2% | 17.7% | 44.7% | |
| Maths (Compulsory) | 42,701 | 1.5% | 6.3% | 15.8% | 40.1% | |
| BAFS (Accounting) | 6,066 | 1.5% | 6.2% | 15.4% | 43.6% | |
| ICT | 5,687 | 1.5% | 5.9% | 14.8% | 36.2% | |
| History | 4,546 | 1.3% | 5.7% | 13.7% | 42.0% | |
| Geography | 7,798 | 1.3% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 37.8% | |
| Chinese History | 5,791 | 1.3% | 5.1% | 13.4% | 38.2% | |
| English | 42,797 | 1.1% | 4.4% | 10.8% | 28.6% | |
| Chinese | 41,780 | 1.0% | 4.0% | 9.8% | 30.9% | |
| BAFS (Management) | 2,680 | 0.7% | 2.8% | 7.2% | 29.8% | |
| Visual Arts | 3,473 | 0.7% | 2.8% | 6.9% | 23.4% | |
| Tourism and Hospitality | 4,026 | 0.5% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 17.1% |
Citizenship and Social Development:42,762 candidates, 94.7% attained (94.4% of all candidates).
Science entry trends
Change in total entries from 2024 to 2026. The rise in private candidates is concentrated in Physics, Chemistry, M2 and Economics (Physics private entries +134% in two years).
Physics candidates who sat
- All candidates10,432 → 12,963+24.3%
- Day schools9,194 → 9,870+7.4%
- Others, mainly private candidates1,238 → 3,093
Where is the real competition?
Keep DSE grading and university admission apart, or the two kinds of competition get mixed up.
DSE Levels 1 to 5 are standards-referenced: meet the standard and you get the level, whatever other candidates do. Only 5** and 5* are allocated by proportion: the top 10% of Level 5 candidates get 5** and the next 30% get 5*, counted across all candidates, private candidates included. Because this is a proportion rather than a fixed quota, private candidates squeeze local students only if they outperform them within Level 5. Take 2026 Physics: about 9.8% of day-school candidates at Level 5 got 5**, against about 7.8% of private candidates. Even removing all 3,093 private candidates would only move day-school 5** from about 276 to about 282, a very small effect. The real competition is in university admission, not in marking.
Most mainland private candidates do not have local student status, so they apply directly to universities as non-local students (not through JUPAS) and take non-local places (the cap rises from 40% to 50% from 2026/27). In principle they do not take any of the roughly 15,000 funded places. However, dependant children of talent-scheme entrants, such as the Top Talent Pass Scheme and the Admission Scheme for Mainland Talents and Professionals, still count as local students and can compete for funded places through JUPAS, one reason JUPAS applications have risen over the past two years. The EDB has announced tighter rules: from 2028/29, dependant children must have lived in Hong Kong or studied at a local school for two years before admission to keep local status, with transitional arrangements in 2027/28.
Scoring and weighting
2026 entry rules are all verified; 2027 entry formulas are due around Oct–Nov 2026 and need rechecking then.
CityU, CUHK (except Medicine), PolyU, HKUST and HKU use this scale. HKUST also gives up to a 5% bonus for a sixth subject.
Nursing, physiotherapy and AI
- PolyU JS3648Nursing: Chi / Eng / Maths / Bio ×10, others ×7 (Bio ≈×1.43)
- PolyU JS3636Physiotherapy: ×10 / ×7 / ×5
- CUHK JS4513Nursing: best of Phy / Chem / Bio ×1.2
- HKU JS6468Nursing: no weighting; sixth subject ×0.5
- CUHK JS4468Artificial Intelligence: Phy / Chem / Bio / ICT ×1.5, Core Maths and M1/M2 ×1.75, Chi / Eng ×1.25; Level 5 in Maths required (Level 4 considered case by case); expected score 49–50
Medicine scoring
- CUHK JS4501/4502Counts 6 subjects with 5**=7, 5*=6, 5=5 (Chi + Eng + Maths + better of Bio/Chem + best two others). M1/M2 is not a separate elective; if it beats the weakest of the six, that subject is replaced by (half its score + half M1/M2). JS4502 GPS also requires a total above 40 and 5** in any four subjects.
- HKU JS6456MBBS counts Best 6 and requires Chem or Bio.
- HKU JS6626MBBS (DMS, Distinguished MedScholar): a new top track from 2026 entry, with higher admission scores than JS6456.
Where M1/M2 fits
An extended part of Mathematics that does not use one of the three elective slots; most universities count it as a separate subject (Medicine and some others excepted).
HKUST medical school
Not a route straight from the DSE: the first cohort of about 50 starts in 2028/29 and takes university graduates only (a four-year second degree), with no direct DSE/JUPAS entry.
- Approved by the Executive Council
- Ground broken on the Causeway Bay medical education and research building (completion mid-2028)
- Founding Dean Prof. King Li takes office
- 2028/29First cohort of about 50
- Teaching hospital site reserved at Ngau Tam Mei
The route from S3
Finish senior secondary and the DSE.
First complete a recognised degree. Admission scores for related degrees, such as science, biomedical sciences and biochemistry, have also risen in recent years.
Then apply for the four-year graduate-entry MBBS.
Syllabuses
The Physics, Chemistry, Biology and M1/M2 curricula and assessment frameworks stay unchanged until at least 2028.
Next steps
Defining Education’s arrangements apply for enrolment, payment and the latest updates.
Sources
Population, enrolment and DSE
- EDB Student Enrolment Statistics 2025/26 — S1–S6 enrolment
- HKEAA examination reports and statistics — 2021–25 Table 1/7
- HKEAA 2026 results press release and annexes — candidates and subject results
- HKEAA standards-referenced reporting explained — 5**/5* proportions
- C&SD birth statistics — 2006–14 live births
JUPAS and popular programmes
- JUPAS Main Round offer statistics — Main Round offers
- Hok Yau Club student.hk 2026-05-29 — first-round choice changes
- Hok Yau Club 2026 results analysis — Best 5 of about 22 as a guide
- Wen Wei Po 2026-08-05 — Main Round results
University scoring and medicine
Local status and curriculum
- EDB 2025-07-31: funded-place eligibility changes
- LegCo reply: dependant visas and about 15,000 places
- HKEAA 2026–29 assessment frameworks
- EDB science education curriculum documents — Physics / Chemistry / Biology Curriculum and Assessment Guides